Theme 1: Drought

The Drought Issue: The drought issue is a common concern for both Canada and the USA. Drought phenomena are frequent on the Great Plains, a vast steppe climate zone that extends from Texas to the central part of the Canadian prairie provinces and serves as the major grain production area of North America. Collaboration already exits through the North American drought monitor. US Perspectives: The US is seeking to strengthen its understanding of drought and ability to enhance its prediction through the NIDIS program. It also has taken the issue of drought monitoring to the GEO Summit and made a commitment to lead in the development of a global drought monitoring system. How can the GEO framework enable the US to expand its national and regional drought monitoring activities to the global scale? Canadian Perspectives: Both research groups such as the Drought Research Initiative and operational groups, such as the Agriculture and Agri-food Industry are undertaking efforts to understand, monitor and predict drought more effectively. To this end Canadian GEO has led in the development of a proposal for enhanced soil moisture monitoring. How can GEO strengthen the data gathering and analysis support needed to improve the monitoring and prediction of the initiation, evolution and termination of drought events?

Theme 2: Marine Ice:

The marine ice issue: Conventional monitoring of marine ice over vast areas of the Arctic Ocean and freshwater ice on rivers and lakes has declined over the last few decades, though satellites provide new opportunities for observations of the cryosphere. Prediction of ice conditions is of primary importance for weather forecasting, marine transportation safety and offshore energy development, and agriculture. From a scientific perspective there is a great deal of interest in knowing the extent to which the ice cover in Arctic Ocean is diminishing in response to climate change. This information has high value for ecological management in the North. The US Perspective: Sea ice forecasting is a new area of research that will benefit from better observations and improvements in ice models. Ice extent and thickness are important for navigation and numerical weather prediction. New and more robust assimilation methods for cryospheric products need to be explored. How can GEO help foster research in modeling and data assimilation for ice forecasting and help promote the enhancement of in-situ and satellite monitoring of ice? The Canadian Perspective: The lake and river ice observing network has declined significantly since 1970. Ways to reinvigorate it must be sought. Sea ice monitoring, including new methods of estimating ice thickness, is critical to the NationÕs transportation system and frontier energy development. How can GEO help reverse the decline in freshwater ice observing networks and enhance observations of ice characteristics?

Theme 3: Closing the Water Budget

The scope of the water budget issue: The water budget is highly variable from year to year on all scales and is sensitive to changes in climate. Developing the data base required to close the water budget is a major challenge for the monitoring climate change and predicting both future climate and future weather. Both the water and terrestrial cryosphere communities share an interest in the water budget. US Perspectives: For the 48 contiguous states the water budget is driven by precipitation from summer convective systems and hurricanes (Southeast coast). Synoptic systems are the major source of winter precipitation. Mountains play an important role in collecting snow in the winter months which is then distributed at the time of spring melt through the river system. How can GEO help to provide data products, assimilation and prediction systems and decision support tools needed for closing regional water budgets and guiding water management decisions? Canadian perspectives: The water budgets in northern Canada are affected by the cryospheric component of the water budget which may be present for most (or even all) of the year. Due to the sparse population densities in northern Canada, in-situ precipitation networks are very sparse. However, satellite estimates also have their limitations for these areas. How can GEO provide data and assimilation products needed to characterize the acceleration of the global water cycle at northern latitudes arising from global change?

Theme 4: Data Assimilation

There is a need to bring data from different sources and domains together and to make them available to the public and as initial conditions for prediction models. The best way to do this is through a data assimilation system that can account for differences in data types and densities and fill in data gaps with information on surface conditions, etc. This session will assess the status of current assimilation systems and recommend developments needed to take full advantage of the new data sets that will be provided through GEO. US Perspectives: There are many data sets (e.g., RADARSAT) and products (e.g., ice motion) currently available, but not all of them can be effectively used in assimilations systems for data services and prediction. How can the GEO framework help to make more data useable in data assimilation frameworks? Canadian perspective: In many areas the uncertainties in the estimates of water cycle data sets are large due to the sparse data inputs (e.g., cold season precipitation in the north). On occasion the model physics of the assimilation system may be the most important determinant of the accuracy of the data product. How can GEO assist the production of reliable data products in data sparse areas?